* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 27 36 44 55 60 60 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 27 36 44 55 60 60 58 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 37 41 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 5 6 5 2 4 4 4 12 8 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 4 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 3 2 12 14 SHEAR DIR 266 269 331 303 271 273 152 150 164 130 168 198 283 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 162 162 160 158 154 151 149 148 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 72 72 73 70 71 66 65 63 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 8 8 10 13 14 18 20 19 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 7 1 2 -9 -10 -8 -2 2 3 7 7 200 MB DIV 124 109 110 70 58 61 71 109 127 45 25 79 67 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 2 4 3 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 967 975 1000 1023 1049 1065 1077 1086 1092 1096 1125 1152 1122 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.9 9.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.6 101.8 103.0 104.1 105.9 107.6 109.0 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.4 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 27 35 46 44 35 36 40 35 24 17 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 4. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 2. 11. 19. 30. 35. 35. 33. 31. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/14/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)