* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 23 28 32 42 50 53 57 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 23 28 32 42 50 53 57 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 20 22 24 28 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 9 4 6 5 5 8 10 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 6 3 5 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 3 4 9 SHEAR DIR 255 259 271 275 251 295 246 111 150 108 83 97 91 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 163 164 162 161 160 158 154 151 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.3 -53.1 -52.0 -52.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 72 75 73 71 71 69 68 65 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 10 9 9 12 13 16 18 19 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 13 7 0 -5 -18 -6 -8 0 -2 -2 5 200 MB DIV 155 128 124 109 81 60 53 103 75 98 -4 14 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 931 943 958 975 1004 1047 1079 1093 1123 1144 1165 1187 1220 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.2 12.0 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.7 100.0 101.2 102.4 104.5 106.3 107.9 109.3 110.6 111.8 113.0 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 24 26 32 50 42 35 37 39 29 19 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 7. 17. 25. 28. 32. 34. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/14/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)