* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 27 29 36 41 44 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 27 29 36 41 44 46 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 25 23 21 21 21 21 22 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 8 10 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 10 4 3 -1 0 0 -2 -1 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 270 255 253 242 275 275 252 205 162 176 142 156 143 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 165 165 166 163 160 158 157 151 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 72 72 69 71 69 68 64 61 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 11 10 9 10 11 15 16 18 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 15 11 2 -5 -10 -9 -8 -2 0 1 0 200 MB DIV 145 154 126 126 109 61 59 81 97 85 27 19 15 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 6 LAND (KM) 935 938 938 920 911 914 960 988 1009 1012 999 1000 1040 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 6 6 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 23 23 28 40 34 32 31 36 40 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 11. 14. 16. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 11. 16. 19. 21. 19. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/14/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)