* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 47 52 55 57 56 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 47 52 55 57 56 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 27 28 29 31 32 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 3 5 2 1 1 5 3 9 17 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 13 12 11 8 3 2 0 0 3 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 286 269 268 259 277 198 167 231 179 165 136 166 177 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 164 163 164 163 161 156 151 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -53.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 72 74 72 69 70 67 65 64 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 10 13 13 15 17 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 31 14 13 17 13 -1 -2 -8 0 0 6 -1 -3 200 MB DIV 98 129 148 142 129 102 83 57 79 78 75 55 67 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 2 3 1 8 LAND (KM) 911 955 959 958 958 970 974 987 984 1016 1021 1055 1073 LAT (DEG N) 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.2 9.0 9.6 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.7 97.8 98.9 100.0 102.1 104.0 105.8 107.5 109.2 110.7 112.2 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 25 23 26 33 45 35 30 39 40 25 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 22. 27. 30. 32. 31. 27. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/14/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 77% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 9.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 55% is 17.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)