* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 05/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 57 67 73 76 80 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 57 67 73 76 80 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 28 31 37 45 57 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 1 2 4 5 5 3 2 4 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 21 15 17 15 12 11 5 4 4 -4 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 86 66 296 14 354 328 349 36 49 49 42 64 142 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 156 155 153 152 153 156 159 161 157 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 70 69 73 69 69 71 73 72 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 13 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 20 23 35 41 31 17 1 -1 1 1 1 200 MB DIV 65 102 124 125 114 92 86 57 53 63 77 86 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 926 983 1032 1074 1117 1178 1242 1261 1256 1231 1196 1133 1105 LAT (DEG N) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.3 8.0 9.2 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.3 97.5 98.7 99.8 101.6 103.2 104.3 105.1 105.9 106.9 108.1 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 10 8 7 5 5 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 28 22 16 15 20 29 38 53 51 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 37. 47. 53. 56. 60. 60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 05/13/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 89% is 7.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 10.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)