* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 34 35 35 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 34 35 35 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 23 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 19 17 16 18 18 27 26 35 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -7 -3 0 -2 0 1 8 7 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 293 291 301 296 307 291 280 282 265 257 255 255 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 139 138 138 140 137 133 129 126 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 72 71 69 67 65 62 62 59 54 51 50 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 20 6 -3 -1 -21 -30 -35 -30 -37 -28 -26 200 MB DIV 34 15 19 24 17 21 19 20 48 59 14 -24 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 2 0 0 4 6 3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1108 1110 1106 1118 1134 1178 1229 1256 1249 1221 1189 1189 1220 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.8 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.4 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 26 21 16 26 19 15 5 5 7 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. -18. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)