* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 09/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 43 40 31 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 43 40 31 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 33 32 31 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 14 13 11 11 7 6 5 4 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 49 60 68 58 59 80 86 97 142 195 171 166 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 26.9 25.6 23.5 22.0 20.8 20.2 20.1 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 142 133 119 97 81 69 62 61 59 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 84 81 78 79 71 70 68 64 62 55 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 15 14 16 17 15 15 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 38 35 28 36 48 44 34 33 21 29 16 200 MB DIV 70 74 87 68 36 34 4 6 8 4 1 16 16 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -7 -10 -7 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 405 462 527 483 465 538 587 690 762 842 956 1078 1180 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.9 110.1 111.2 112.3 114.4 116.5 118.4 120.2 122.0 123.7 125.3 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 16 6 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 300 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 13. 10. 1. -8. -14. -20. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 09/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)