* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 20 23 28 38 33 27 32 39 34 30 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 8 4 0 5 4 0 -3 3 2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 250 258 289 307 298 275 268 259 259 261 271 N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 121 124 127 123 120 124 123 122 120 122 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.5 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 41 41 40 43 47 44 34 33 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -8 -18 -18 -35 -29 -13 5 17 12 2 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 20 1 -4 -16 -23 -19 -3 38 12 8 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 1 1 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1750 1846 1948 2079 2206 2431 2143 1873 1673 1551 1450 1360 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.1 126.4 128.0 129.6 132.7 135.6 138.2 140.2 141.5 142.6 143.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 15 13 11 8 6 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -28. -38. -45. -53. -58. -63. -66. -66. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/25/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##