* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 29 31 34 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 29 31 34 34 30 28 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 21 20 21 19 15 20 21 18 6 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 0 6 7 8 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 25 14 8 354 359 347 13 14 26 15 359 189 227 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 143 144 143 144 147 152 156 157 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 5 7 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 74 72 69 70 75 77 76 78 76 80 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 0 2 4 -4 -4 -12 38 53 81 83 92 200 MB DIV 0 0 13 -9 -1 36 36 85 93 116 65 63 97 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 440 452 473 490 467 435 401 343 237 85 -43 -84 53 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.8 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.5 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.6 97.2 97.6 97.8 97.3 95.7 94.8 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 7 7 30 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 16. 19. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##