* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 27 29 31 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 27 29 31 31 32 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 20 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 14 15 15 17 17 17 25 28 22 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 27 20 8 355 345 354 356 353 37 32 34 16 266 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 143 144 143 144 145 148 153 157 156 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 75 73 70 75 70 75 74 79 79 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 -2 1 6 5 5 0 23 39 66 71 70 200 MB DIV 16 12 23 32 21 28 36 61 72 109 89 72 71 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 -4 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 435 433 437 444 455 435 390 341 279 165 39 -64 -47 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.3 15.5 16.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.7 94.2 94.7 95.1 95.8 96.5 96.9 97.1 96.9 95.7 94.3 93.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 6 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 4 6 6 8 11 28 40 44 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 15. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##