* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/15/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 36 37 39 42 44 48 54 59 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 36 37 39 42 44 48 54 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 41 42 43 45 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 20 21 23 24 34 32 34 32 31 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 -1 -2 -7 -7 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 57 64 73 87 107 112 96 91 87 80 76 73 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 152 151 148 146 146 147 146 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 40 40 47 50 50 55 57 61 59 54 53 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 58 75 79 69 58 59 63 67 84 100 110 104 96 200 MB DIV 2 -26 -26 -33 -2 -29 -25 34 52 55 51 51 11 700-850 TADV 8 5 1 2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 442 521 601 649 699 757 830 861 837 861 925 970 993 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.2 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.3 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.5 110.4 110.8 110.6 110.9 111.6 112.3 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 10 8 10 12 13 10 7 9 7 4 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 19. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##