* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 28 32 35 38 40 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 28 32 35 38 40 44 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 26 27 29 31 32 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 8 6 8 12 18 20 19 16 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 1 -4 -1 0 -5 0 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 76 86 64 57 50 86 92 85 71 79 80 82 120 SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 162 161 160 159 158 155 152 150 147 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 9 8 9 9 8 7 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 57 54 46 49 48 52 51 58 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 24 25 24 33 39 45 74 64 82 69 82 200 MB DIV 21 39 61 61 47 49 23 -2 -8 -28 -12 -3 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 6 7 8 9 10 0 0 0 3 5 LAND (KM) 352 251 152 135 127 152 209 291 383 449 513 646 781 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.2 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 107.1 106.0 105.4 104.7 104.2 104.2 105.0 106.3 107.5 108.5 110.1 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 5 6 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 44 39 43 44 43 45 40 11 6 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##