* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 25 25 27 31 39 43 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 25 25 27 31 39 43 49 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 28 26 23 22 22 23 24 24 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 20 17 13 16 16 14 21 16 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 0 -3 0 -1 -1 3 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 104 106 105 93 95 90 75 55 54 44 29 66 81 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 154 158 161 160 159 158 157 155 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 8 7 9 7 8 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 63 64 66 68 66 62 60 55 61 64 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 11 16 18 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 62 53 48 40 36 34 33 40 42 61 73 85 101 200 MB DIV 43 59 75 65 87 111 61 47 21 14 9 26 -8 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -3 2 2 1 1 0 -4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 780 643 506 381 260 176 152 182 241 296 361 427 470 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.2 16.8 16.4 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 110.1 109.0 107.8 106.6 104.6 103.5 103.2 103.7 104.4 105.4 106.4 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 7 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 8 13 37 42 45 42 44 48 44 39 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 7. 10. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -4. 4. 8. 14. 15. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##