* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 35 32 31 30 29 27 25 23 27 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 35 32 31 30 29 27 25 23 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 32 30 29 28 26 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 8 11 15 10 18 22 21 19 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 0 0 3 0 2 3 1 8 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 119 165 120 135 98 124 99 87 95 99 83 88 89 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 137 136 136 138 142 144 144 145 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -51.6 -51.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 62 56 56 58 56 51 48 49 53 60 61 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 15 18 15 15 15 14 13 12 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 53 59 58 53 69 107 83 59 45 53 63 200 MB DIV 56 71 77 70 69 69 -4 52 17 68 0 31 0 700-850 TADV 2 3 7 1 3 -1 -2 -6 0 2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1353 1294 1236 1190 1144 1027 926 886 846 653 379 236 193 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.4 16.1 17.8 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 119.4 118.8 118.3 117.8 116.4 114.8 113.4 111.8 110.1 108.2 107.2 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 11 10 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 7 6 7 22 9 8 10 12 30 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##