* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 51 50 46 44 33 30 26 25 18 20 18 V (KT) LAND 60 54 51 50 46 44 33 30 26 25 18 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 49 46 44 41 38 33 30 27 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 5 8 15 9 4 10 16 21 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 0 -3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 57 71 88 124 166 149 198 253 38 62 65 71 61 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 137 133 123 117 119 124 127 126 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 52 44 37 34 31 34 34 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 23 23 19 22 19 21 20 21 17 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 69 80 85 101 92 95 96 115 121 134 118 200 MB DIV 63 71 65 73 92 55 23 -11 -43 6 -14 -25 -39 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 4 1 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -7 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 1480 1428 1376 1311 1247 1103 957 900 917 958 958 951 934 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.4 18.4 18.3 17.8 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 120.8 120.5 120.3 120.0 119.4 118.5 117.5 117.0 116.8 116.8 116.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 13 20 7 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 2. -3. 0. -2. 0. -4. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -14. -16. -27. -30. -34. -35. -42. -40. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##