* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 60 58 55 55 52 51 49 49 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 70 64 60 58 55 55 52 51 49 49 49 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 63 60 59 58 57 55 53 51 49 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 11 9 10 12 17 16 22 20 14 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 8 3 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 63 62 58 97 81 107 98 85 81 64 60 94 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 141 142 141 140 143 145 144 144 153 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 63 61 58 60 49 48 52 58 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 22 21 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 54 69 73 80 68 62 73 92 91 75 56 200 MB DIV 70 72 92 85 94 99 60 34 13 52 66 55 14 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 4 3 6 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 5 0 LAND (KM) 1502 1475 1449 1420 1390 1326 1230 1123 1030 902 735 478 234 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.9 17.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.0 120.8 120.6 120.3 119.4 118.2 116.8 115.3 113.3 110.9 108.9 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 10 11 13 10 11 29 9 10 5 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -15. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##