* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 76 76 76 77 71 66 62 62 56 54 V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 76 76 76 77 71 66 62 62 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 77 75 74 72 71 70 68 66 63 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 6 8 8 7 8 17 19 28 25 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 0 4 3 2 0 -1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 108 83 75 85 52 84 97 79 85 64 61 70 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 141 141 142 140 140 141 145 146 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 64 63 57 56 53 52 53 57 63 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 21 20 19 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 58 48 45 55 65 66 70 52 67 79 88 68 55 200 MB DIV 114 74 77 62 73 104 45 36 34 91 68 86 34 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 5 5 3 0 -1 1 0 0 9 0 LAND (KM) 1486 1470 1453 1424 1394 1335 1252 1157 1080 982 883 641 368 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.1 121.0 120.8 120.5 119.7 118.6 117.3 116.0 114.2 112.1 109.8 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 10 31 12 7 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 4. 2. 1. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -9. -14. -18. -18. -23. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##