* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 70 76 86 91 95 93 90 83 81 73 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 70 76 86 91 95 93 90 83 81 73 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 70 75 80 83 84 84 82 80 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 15 17 11 18 10 18 22 22 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -7 -6 -2 -1 3 2 2 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 46 90 84 78 82 71 57 56 86 88 96 83 73 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 143 142 141 141 141 141 142 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 74 76 78 76 74 65 58 53 52 42 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 11 13 16 18 20 21 22 18 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 49 46 60 85 95 115 116 110 105 108 96 200 MB DIV 66 89 98 101 116 158 130 132 125 122 61 -6 13 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 1 4 3 5 3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1392 1398 1405 1384 1363 1312 1296 1268 1237 1181 1102 972 824 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.8 118.0 118.0 117.9 117.8 117.7 117.4 117.2 116.6 115.9 114.4 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 17 18 19 19 19 18 26 33 17 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 12. 17. 17. 19. 14. 16. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 26. 36. 41. 45. 43. 40. 33. 31. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##