* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 79 85 89 92 84 79 68 56 50 49 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 79 85 89 92 84 79 52 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 73 73 73 73 72 72 51 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 6 7 7 9 15 10 11 13 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -3 -2 -4 1 -5 -2 -2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 54 81 94 81 67 97 94 110 191 254 240 267 295 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.3 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 144 145 146 148 151 157 166 169 171 170 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 69 72 72 67 67 64 55 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 18 17 21 21 24 20 20 14 8 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -37 -20 -19 -19 13 43 65 87 84 57 22 -34 200 MB DIV 46 59 69 65 88 106 110 84 73 42 28 6 -57 700-850 TADV 1 5 8 5 5 5 0 -2 -8 -4 0 -3 1 LAND (KM) 683 635 585 544 505 412 324 196 53 -41 -119 -230 -371 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.7 19.0 20.6 22.3 24.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 109.8 109.3 108.8 108.3 107.2 106.3 105.7 105.3 104.9 104.5 104.1 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 7 6 9 29 33 38 9 10 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 13. 9. 9. 2. -8. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27. 19. 14. 3. -9. -15. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##