* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 47 56 66 71 74 76 74 80 83 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 47 56 66 71 74 76 74 80 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 54 61 69 77 82 86 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 9 16 10 6 11 5 6 4 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 53 69 70 65 63 55 79 56 129 114 192 260 169 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 154 155 156 156 155 153 152 152 153 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 77 73 73 74 74 73 67 58 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 10 12 11 10 12 11 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 5 6 4 0 -1 13 20 40 45 46 64 200 MB DIV 101 100 79 86 108 113 96 76 41 77 33 40 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 3 -7 -1 0 LAND (KM) 266 259 253 244 235 217 222 231 241 283 336 446 527 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 11 9 8 27 30 38 37 32 14 9 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 5. 4. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 26. 36. 41. 44. 46. 44. 50. 53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##