* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 66 71 77 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 66 71 77 86 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 43 48 54 59 64 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 11 8 5 6 6 6 6 11 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 -1 -6 -4 -7 -7 -7 2 SHEAR DIR 102 96 102 88 108 94 96 104 125 110 102 84 56 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 158 158 157 155 155 154 153 150 147 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 8 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 78 77 77 78 73 76 73 72 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 13 16 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 48 42 39 39 36 33 25 13 14 13 8 28 30 200 MB DIV 56 67 62 63 81 86 74 55 44 56 52 79 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 267 273 290 296 250 231 239 274 336 436 546 682 789 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.8 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.7 96.9 97.9 99.2 100.6 102.4 104.3 106.2 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 12 32 38 35 10 10 27 9 12 7 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 41. 46. 52. 61. 63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##