* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 17 18 19 27 31 27 33 37 48 53 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 167 180 187 187 192 198 222 231 248 255 256 250 249 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 118 117 115 115 117 119 121 125 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 41 38 42 41 43 38 38 36 36 34 33 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 0 4 -1 -13 -8 -14 -8 -12 -6 -20 -22 200 MB DIV -2 1 10 3 11 4 24 4 0 -4 -8 20 5 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 4 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1240 1136 1033 920 808 602 430 318 244 312 473 591 700 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.1 146.0 147.1 148.1 150.2 152.1 153.8 155.7 157.6 159.8 161.9 163.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -27. -36. -44. -49. -53. -57. -59. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##