* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 58 62 61 58 52 48 43 37 32 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 58 62 61 58 52 48 43 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 52 55 58 63 64 61 57 51 46 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 2 5 10 15 17 21 19 20 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -7 -6 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 55 49 120 129 109 124 135 151 179 208 229 234 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 133 130 125 123 122 120 119 119 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 53 52 52 47 43 39 38 37 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 25 35 35 34 27 26 15 11 3 2 -12 -7 -21 200 MB DIV 4 -9 -19 -24 -6 3 5 5 20 7 8 25 21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 3 0 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 2210 2142 2074 1993 1912 1727 1522 1299 1072 876 713 574 433 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.6 137.3 138.0 138.7 140.2 141.9 143.8 145.8 147.8 149.8 151.8 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 17. 16. 13. 7. 3. -2. -8. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##