* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/13/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 51 59 65 66 68 62 62 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 43 51 59 65 66 68 62 62 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 55 56 55 51 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 9 12 9 8 8 5 5 3 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 82 61 62 63 60 33 30 295 219 280 153 131 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 140 134 131 129 127 120 112 108 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 59 60 61 60 60 61 60 58 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 14 15 17 15 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 18 14 12 16 16 23 18 20 29 40 48 200 MB DIV 40 54 57 63 40 66 35 50 34 29 20 21 6 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1795 1861 1929 1988 2049 2209 2330 2379 2392 2424 2230 1992 1720 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.0 124.9 125.8 126.6 128.7 130.4 131.4 131.9 132.8 134.5 136.5 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 7 4 4 7 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 28 27 27 19 17 15 14 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 15. 13. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 29. 35. 36. 38. 32. 32. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##