* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 10 12 19 23 31 42 43 47 56 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -7 -3 -1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 121 156 176 193 202 219 239 247 263 256 273 287 N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 90 89 87 87 88 90 92 92 92 95 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 62 63 61 55 45 36 30 29 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -2 13 24 20 21 14 11 6 0 4 0 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 21 25 20 14 -7 -6 6 0 -3 -9 -12 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 0 3 3 2 -1 0 -1 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1608 1673 1740 1813 1889 2042 2102 1924 1757 1581 1439 1294 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.6 129.5 130.5 131.4 133.2 134.7 136.4 138.0 139.7 141.1 142.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -6. -13. -19. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -17. -27. -38. -49. -61. -71. -80. -88. -89. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##