* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 40 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 40 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 42 38 32 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 7 6 7 13 18 20 31 42 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 3 3 1 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 76 102 141 147 160 189 227 231 244 247 258 256 273 SST (C) 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 96 93 92 88 85 84 85 87 88 88 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 68 67 64 61 57 50 45 37 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 17 17 15 13 12 9 8 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 0 -7 -1 23 20 20 6 15 6 4 -3 200 MB DIV 31 34 28 28 -3 15 6 17 12 -19 -4 3 3 700-850 TADV -15 -3 1 1 0 2 5 0 3 1 0 3 7 LAND (KM) 1417 1472 1534 1590 1651 1782 1930 2033 2080 1936 1793 1643 1528 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.2 126.3 127.3 128.3 130.2 132.1 133.6 134.9 136.3 137.7 139.2 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -26. -27. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -20. -31. -42. -53. -64. -72. -82. -90. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##