* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 46 51 50 50 51 55 59 64 70 75 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 46 51 48 48 49 53 57 62 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 35 39 42 42 42 44 48 54 62 71 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 8 10 5 3 6 17 13 12 8 9 3 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 3 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 257 241 338 309 328 30 236 276 264 265 248 216 203 222 228 232 200 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 145 142 138 140 137 141 140 139 134 141 139 141 143 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 60 57 55 53 50 43 41 40 38 38 39 39 41 40 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 21 19 18 18 19 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 115 113 97 110 109 104 102 94 77 51 36 30 34 23 25 4 3 200 MB DIV 128 93 74 65 37 56 12 -1 -12 -7 -2 -8 -19 -3 -29 -1 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 -2 -2 6 0 7 6 7 13 0 0 1 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 1507 1412 1317 1210 1103 900 630 352 106 22 107 103 357 632 919 1185 1441 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 21 21 16 11 10 13 8 15 16 12 11 18 11 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 21. 20. 20. 21. 25. 29. 34. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 141.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.19 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.26 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 21.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.4% 6.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 13.0% SDCON: 1.9% 6.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##