* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922026 07/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 55 69 79 85 90 91 88 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 55 69 79 85 90 91 88 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 44 49 62 79 99 120 129 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 6 6 3 6 2 2 3 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -7 -4 -3 -4 -5 -1 1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 202 203 194 228 74 114 69 214 262 254 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 156 158 158 158 160 161 162 165 170 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 71 70 70 70 72 70 71 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 18 21 22 26 30 30 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 116 126 137 143 151 143 138 127 136 135 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 41 44 62 98 96 79 75 35 52 45 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 -1 -4 -6 0 0 3 2 4 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2235 2361 2491 2624 2748 2922 2744 2627 2545 2441 2321 2147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.7 19.3 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.9 180.4 181.9 183.3 184.6 187.1 188.7 189.7 190.4 191.4 192.7 194.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 10 7 7 8 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 55 48 52 50 58 65 53 52 48 68 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 24. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 13. 7. 0. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 39. 49. 55. 60. 61. 58. 61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 178.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922026 INVEST 07/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 19.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.94 18.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -14.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 10.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.54 6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 3.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 88% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 85% is 14.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 75.0% 65.0% 50.9% 0.0% 87.6% 84.7% 39.1% Logistic: 37.1% 77.9% 61.7% 55.6% 48.0% 66.5% 9.2% 10.9% Bayesian: 3.4% 59.0% 39.9% 19.7% 35.8% 35.1% 63.5% 4.8% Consensus: 23.6% 70.7% 55.6% 42.1% 27.9% 63.1% 52.5% 18.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 24.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 8.0% 55.0% 100.0% SDCON: 14.8% 47.3% 32.3% 22.5% 14.9% 35.5% 53.7% 59.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922026 INVEST 07/26/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##