* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 22 27 35 45 53 61 64 64 64 66 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 22 27 35 45 53 61 64 64 64 66 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 22 24 27 32 37 40 42 43 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 27 26 25 24 23 14 10 11 18 23 27 29 27 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 4 0 -2 0 0 0 -5 -8 -9 -12 -11 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 97 108 113 112 106 97 80 87 86 72 68 59 61 61 62 62 50 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 157 157 162 165 169 170 172 171 166 166 163 163 164 161 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 67 67 63 65 71 63 65 69 76 70 68 67 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 7 9 9 9 8 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 -2 -6 -4 5 30 60 71 74 74 71 70 69 82 86 81 200 MB DIV -12 -5 1 35 27 39 0 24 7 41 38 66 59 61 49 71 43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1132 1140 1149 1177 1225 1359 1487 1632 1760 1884 2013 2024 2046 2078 2093 2109 2030 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.0 6.7 5.6 4.6 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.3 153.4 153.5 153.7 154.1 155.3 157.0 159.0 161.1 163.5 165.9 167.9 169.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 5 7 10 11 11 12 12 12 9 6 4 3 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 37 33 29 41 59 81 99 100 95 78 78 68 68 57 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 21. 31. 41. 49. 56. 62. 67. 70. 71. 71. 71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -27. -29. -31. -33. -37. -41. -42. -39. -35. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -2. 0. 1. 0. -0. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. 2. 10. 20. 28. 36. 39. 39. 39. 41. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 153.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -21.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.08 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##