* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 23 26 31 40 47 54 59 62 62 66 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 23 26 31 40 47 54 59 62 62 66 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 30 35 40 42 45 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 25 25 24 22 25 21 12 10 12 20 23 23 15 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 3 2 -2 0 0 2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 84 98 109 111 109 105 86 78 82 85 70 54 52 52 57 65 53 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 155 156 158 162 165 165 169 167 164 162 159 159 156 148 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 71 73 72 69 66 64 68 72 64 72 79 80 78 78 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 8 8 10 10 10 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 8 1 -1 7 23 55 80 80 81 84 83 74 66 64 60 200 MB DIV -5 0 10 34 43 53 17 0 2 38 36 94 108 151 91 68 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1145 1145 1145 1163 1188 1268 1380 1480 1559 1653 1740 1800 1810 1741 1626 1475 1320 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.5 7.6 6.5 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.9 6.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.8 152.8 152.8 152.9 153.2 154.2 155.6 157.3 159.1 161.3 163.6 165.6 166.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 8 9 9 10 11 11 9 7 5 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 34 31 32 32 47 57 62 81 65 54 47 47 46 46 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 8. 18. 28. 37. 45. 51. 57. 62. 64. 65. 65. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -28. -30. -31. -33. -35. -34. -30. -26. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 15. 22. 29. 34. 37. 37. 41. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 152.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.07 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##