* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 41 46 52 56 61 63 62 64 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 41 46 52 56 61 63 62 64 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 28 29 30 33 39 43 45 48 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 14 17 21 17 23 17 11 14 19 23 19 14 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 4 4 4 2 -1 -2 -7 -6 -4 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 72 78 96 105 103 108 102 87 86 82 85 52 53 60 63 61 58 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 150 151 153 157 159 159 161 161 159 158 156 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 70 68 70 67 68 72 67 75 77 77 71 71 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 9 9 9 8 10 9 8 8 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 23 20 12 11 16 37 54 60 63 71 64 51 60 68 76 200 MB DIV 14 4 30 28 43 70 48 17 0 -15 3 70 68 59 76 58 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1104 1083 1061 1037 1023 1042 1094 1152 1244 1350 1475 1600 1661 1676 1685 1681 1632 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.1 153.1 153.1 153.2 153.3 153.9 155.0 156.7 158.6 160.7 163.0 165.4 167.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 5 8 9 10 11 12 11 8 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 34 34 32 28 35 33 39 37 45 43 45 41 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 25. 32. 39. 45. 50. 54. 56. 57. 57. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -25. -24. -21. -18. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 27. 31. 36. 38. 37. 39. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 153.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 4.3% 4.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##