* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 29 32 36 38 41 46 50 54 58 57 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 29 32 36 38 41 46 50 54 58 57 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 36 35 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 18 20 22 22 15 13 14 24 27 24 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 5 4 2 1 -1 -2 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 72 80 81 92 104 99 106 95 96 86 80 57 45 53 59 56 44 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 148 148 151 154 159 156 155 159 158 158 155 154 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 68 70 69 70 70 75 70 69 77 80 80 75 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 10 10 11 9 9 9 8 8 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 21 20 23 8 23 33 48 49 57 57 60 46 38 44 55 200 MB DIV 7 1 18 45 44 48 52 28 28 -1 -12 5 58 52 96 56 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1137 1122 1097 1076 1052 1006 1008 1062 1139 1249 1356 1484 1569 1563 1508 1489 1440 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.1 9.4 8.7 8.0 7.7 7.6 8.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 152.5 152.3 152.3 152.4 152.8 153.5 154.8 156.4 158.4 160.6 163.0 165.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 3 6 8 10 11 11 11 10 7 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 34 34 35 34 33 31 37 30 34 43 42 45 49 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 30. 37. 43. 48. 52. 55. 55. 55. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. -23. -24. -23. -21. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 32. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 152.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.84 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 1.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##