* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 37 42 46 49 52 57 64 67 69 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 37 42 46 49 52 57 64 67 69 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 26 25 25 25 27 29 32 34 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 16 16 18 22 22 26 24 19 16 11 12 12 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 1 5 2 -1 0 -1 -1 4 4 7 7 4 SHEAR DIR 61 62 68 78 97 105 94 97 80 73 70 78 56 55 86 112 60 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 150 149 149 151 156 161 163 160 158 155 155 152 150 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 66 69 75 75 75 72 73 66 75 81 82 77 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 12 12 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 20 13 15 0 6 30 41 51 51 47 46 36 33 41 31 200 MB DIV 18 -4 0 -2 35 38 54 52 59 23 7 29 76 79 102 92 76 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1163 1154 1157 1143 1131 1112 1111 1173 1252 1336 1381 1389 1338 1274 1182 1110 1060 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.4 8.6 7.7 6.9 6.6 6.8 7.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.9 152.5 152.1 151.9 151.7 151.9 152.5 153.4 154.6 155.9 157.3 158.8 160.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 5 7 7 8 7 8 10 9 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 31 32 31 32 33 34 34 42 40 33 33 43 45 45 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 38. 44. 49. 53. 56. 56. 56. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -28. -30. -30. -27. -22. -19. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 32. 39. 42. 44. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.8 152.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 4.1% 4.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##