* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 30 32 35 37 38 42 46 48 54 59 61 63 66 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 30 32 35 37 38 42 46 48 54 59 61 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 31 33 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 14 18 22 22 18 21 22 25 22 17 10 12 15 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 0 0 0 4 2 3 2 -1 -1 -2 1 5 10 2 SHEAR DIR 75 72 75 78 83 103 95 98 81 70 75 104 96 54 53 52 50 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 151 152 151 149 151 154 160 161 163 162 157 155 153 151 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 67 67 74 75 78 74 74 73 70 79 81 75 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 31 19 16 16 10 28 46 61 67 55 44 30 17 15 17 200 MB DIV 53 29 2 -2 -18 15 24 36 39 0 -17 10 28 76 93 83 55 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1186 1188 1203 1206 1207 1209 1218 1270 1353 1403 1414 1376 1303 1229 1175 1131 1107 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.0 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.6 7.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.3 152.8 152.3 151.9 151.6 151.3 151.6 152.2 153.1 154.0 155.3 156.9 158.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 0 3 6 6 6 7 10 11 12 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 26 27 28 30 27 27 37 42 50 41 30 39 45 44 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 24. 30. 36. 42. 47. 52. 54. 55. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -23. -29. -33. -35. -34. -31. -26. -22. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 12. 16. 18. 24. 29. 31. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.5 153.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.28 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -7.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##