* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 44 46 47 51 55 57 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 44 46 47 51 55 57 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 26 27 28 27 27 27 26 26 27 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 14 13 16 21 19 23 19 25 27 23 18 16 18 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 4 2 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 10 4 SHEAR DIR 96 79 78 84 81 101 97 100 101 79 71 74 80 52 42 47 32 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 147 144 145 148 153 156 159 157 154 158 158 155 150 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 60 60 62 69 72 74 70 73 71 78 81 81 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 7 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 43 32 19 13 22 16 34 34 46 53 54 52 46 36 39 200 MB DIV 75 55 21 16 4 9 0 32 31 24 11 -3 7 40 97 89 48 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 5 0 LAND (KM) 1148 1150 1159 1157 1151 1112 1066 1032 1053 1117 1195 1268 1323 1340 1354 1306 1256 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.3 9.7 8.9 8.2 7.8 7.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 152.0 151.5 151.1 150.8 150.6 151.1 152.1 153.4 154.9 156.5 158.3 160.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 31 29 27 25 26 32 32 31 35 30 33 45 49 51 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 28. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 51. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -22. -27. -31. -32. -30. -26. -23. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 152.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.31 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.82 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -7.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 4.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##