* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 48 51 54 54 57 61 64 67 67 67 64 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 48 51 54 54 57 61 64 67 67 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 39 43 47 50 51 53 55 57 62 67 71 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 14 11 11 12 15 15 15 16 10 5 6 7 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 0 -2 -1 1 2 3 1 3 0 0 -2 -5 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 92 88 60 58 56 46 73 72 74 59 73 83 96 11 351 313 257 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 154 153 151 150 149 149 148 152 151 151 149 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 66 67 73 76 74 68 65 62 66 68 68 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 35 46 49 55 56 61 57 50 42 49 60 70 68 67 30 18 200 MB DIV 85 55 52 42 19 48 39 34 70 21 31 7 21 -3 34 24 10 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -2 -6 -5 -4 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1081 1049 1049 1058 1058 1049 995 927 881 863 895 1003 1167 1247 1370 1531 1691 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.0 156.2 156.2 155.9 155.5 155.0 154.9 155.1 155.9 157.2 158.9 161.2 163.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 10 12 14 15 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 35 35 32 32 31 32 33 39 43 41 37 34 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -9. -6. -4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 19. 19. 22. 26. 29. 32. 32. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.2 156.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.72 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.02 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.1% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 10.4% 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 6.3% 5.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 6.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 3.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##