* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 45 50 52 54 56 58 63 65 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 39 45 50 52 54 56 58 63 65 66 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 36 37 40 44 46 47 48 48 49 50 51 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 11 11 9 15 12 17 17 25 20 10 17 23 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 10 7 3 1 1 2 4 3 0 0 4 1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 92 100 94 82 75 66 99 102 88 83 79 107 114 90 85 79 71 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 151 152 153 153 151 151 151 152 155 158 157 160 159 158 157 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 63 63 69 75 74 73 67 67 63 70 73 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 7 6 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 43 54 61 43 32 20 11 12 13 28 37 32 32 32 28 200 MB DIV 105 98 74 75 42 28 9 21 32 21 -1 -14 -30 -21 11 48 12 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1128 1072 1063 1068 1075 1096 1076 1041 999 1010 1036 1135 1262 1412 1554 1679 1762 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 9.9 9.6 8.9 8.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.9 154.9 154.7 154.3 153.9 153.0 152.6 152.7 153.4 154.5 155.9 157.7 159.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 29 31 35 35 35 34 31 36 34 38 41 41 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 43. 46. 47. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.8 154.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.76 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.0% 12.5% 10.2% 7.6% 15.1% 13.6% 12.9% Logistic: 1.2% 9.5% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.7% 5.4% 3.9% 2.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.8% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##