* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 33 34 35 41 47 55 61 65 68 69 71 70 71 69 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 33 34 35 41 47 55 61 65 68 69 71 70 71 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 39 45 51 56 60 61 62 61 58 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 12 9 12 9 10 17 19 24 23 20 18 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 10 9 5 1 0 2 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 76 84 93 91 77 59 74 93 60 83 74 77 99 101 81 74 64 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 154 155 155 153 151 151 152 154 159 157 160 160 158 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 66 65 64 66 73 75 74 70 67 68 72 74 69 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 37 43 52 47 26 13 7 15 21 13 24 37 44 50 43 200 MB DIV 143 100 92 71 59 33 23 16 30 41 40 19 7 2 -3 27 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1207 1162 1129 1121 1126 1134 1119 1076 1026 1004 1036 1095 1216 1357 1513 1654 1735 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.7 154.8 154.7 154.5 154.1 153.2 152.6 152.6 153.2 154.2 155.7 157.3 159.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 4 6 8 9 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 30 29 30 34 34 35 34 32 35 38 36 40 43 41 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 28. 33. 38. 42. 47. 50. 51. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -18. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 12. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 5. 11. 17. 25. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. 41. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 154.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.08 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.89 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 19.4% 14.4% 11.5% 0.0% 17.5% 16.0% 16.0% Logistic: 5.3% 31.4% 11.7% 6.6% 0.5% 2.7% 0.8% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 4.6% 17.9% 9.2% 6.2% 0.2% 6.9% 5.9% 8.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.3% 9.9% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% 3.9% 3.4% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##