* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912026 07/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 37 38 43 48 53 55 55 56 58 60 63 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 37 38 43 48 53 55 55 56 58 60 63 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 45 50 54 55 56 57 57 55 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 21 18 16 14 13 15 20 20 19 19 13 16 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 8 5 2 0 0 3 2 1 1 6 3 6 9 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 62 69 76 75 51 45 62 50 70 79 77 114 116 73 61 56 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 159 159 159 158 155 153 156 159 162 161 162 164 164 162 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 70 71 68 69 72 78 77 76 71 73 70 72 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 21 29 34 47 33 16 -2 -22 -11 5 23 32 31 37 41 200 MB DIV 186 185 143 102 72 52 32 6 11 9 16 -5 -13 4 30 39 64 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1291 1259 1227 1216 1203 1194 1205 1173 1142 1144 1175 1247 1341 1455 1568 1664 1743 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.6 156.1 156.3 156.3 156.1 155.0 154.0 153.4 153.3 153.7 154.6 156.0 157.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 2 1 3 5 4 3 1 3 7 8 10 10 10 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 38 38 33 32 35 34 34 31 38 36 44 58 57 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 36. 41. 45. 50. 54. 56. 57. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -24. -22. -20. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 25. 26. 28. 30. 33. 35. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.3 155.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.41 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 31.6% 19.8% 15.4% 0.0% 21.4% 20.1% 19.5% Logistic: 11.5% 38.1% 15.3% 9.4% 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 3.2% 2.7% 0.3% Consensus: 7.9% 24.2% 12.8% 8.6% 0.7% 9.8% 8.6% 12.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##