* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST CP922025 08/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 46 54 55 54 52 50 48 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 46 54 55 54 52 50 48 47 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 38 39 38 37 35 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 4 4 7 3 3 3 9 14 16 18 17 15 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 6 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 3 7 SHEAR DIR 290 283 297 286 334 12 154 179 227 280 292 284 264 273 263 273 258 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.0 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 136 133 136 136 137 136 142 138 141 143 142 143 148 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 55 56 53 50 49 50 53 54 59 62 66 68 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 21 29 34 29 30 26 36 44 32 17 11 4 7 -5 -21 200 MB DIV 45 22 24 34 53 30 31 45 57 49 -6 3 -9 16 13 6 -11 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 4 1 5 -3 -5 -3 0 -3 -2 0 1 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 873 816 780 778 819 977 1122 1296 1510 1716 1893 2034 2125 2188 2233 2253 2265 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 154.3 155.8 157.3 158.8 162.0 164.8 167.6 170.4 172.8 174.8 176.4 177.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 24 25 24 29 38 42 48 52 54 57 60 59 54 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 40. 43. 43. 44. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 29. 30. 29. 27. 25. 23. 22. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 152.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 08/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.81 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 14.1% 5.5% 3.4% 0.7% 4.0% 1.7% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 11.6% 7.3% 1.1% 0.2% 7.5% 6.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 08/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##