* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST CP922025 07/31/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 34 42 50 56 60 62 59 57 53 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 34 42 50 56 60 62 59 57 53 48 43 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 31 35 41 45 46 45 41 35 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 2 3 5 2 5 3 2 8 16 19 24 26 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 -2 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 28 326 327 288 285 155 112 147 169 208 246 278 278 258 260 258 251 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.1 27.7 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 133 131 132 136 139 137 142 140 142 144 143 144 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 51 52 53 50 48 47 46 50 54 59 62 66 68 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 27 18 24 30 22 28 29 36 47 45 22 14 7 3 5 200 MB DIV 40 59 65 39 19 36 27 15 8 31 36 15 25 7 5 21 41 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 -4 -7 -5 -1 -2 1 1 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 1006 889 785 724 692 757 943 1111 1322 1549 1771 1956 2101 2181 2236 2262 2301 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.5 12.2 11.8 11.7 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.8 151.5 153.1 154.5 156.0 159.0 162.1 165.0 168.0 170.8 173.2 175.3 177.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 19 18 19 21 22 29 38 43 49 53 56 59 61 59 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 38. 40. 43. 44. 44. 44. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 9. 17. 25. 31. 35. 37. 34. 32. 28. 23. 18. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 149.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 31.8% 17.2% 9.0% 2.5% 4.6% 0.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 16.5% 10.5% 3.0% 0.8% 7.3% 6.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##