* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST CP922025 07/31/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 40 45 47 49 51 51 50 48 44 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 40 45 47 49 51 51 50 48 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 29 29 29 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 0 5 10 5 3 7 7 8 9 12 15 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 2 1 0 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 349 356 356 267 193 234 252 228 221 260 282 291 288 288 265 260 250 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 141 135 131 135 138 137 141 139 143 144 142 140 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 51 52 52 52 48 48 48 48 52 56 54 56 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 16 29 26 19 18 17 27 31 36 34 33 13 6 11 15 200 MB DIV 29 45 66 66 41 22 37 21 12 41 38 52 30 21 -23 15 16 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 0 1 1 4 3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -1 1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1144 1021 904 804 727 680 807 1020 1176 1410 1668 1906 2114 2268 2389 2495 2575 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.7 12.2 11.8 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.4 150.9 152.4 153.9 156.8 160.1 163.3 166.4 169.5 172.3 174.8 177.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 20 18 19 20 24 34 39 47 52 56 61 64 63 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 38. 41. 43. 45. 46. 45. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 25. 23. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 147.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 19.2% 9.2% 4.9% 0.9% 2.5% 1.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 13.0% 8.4% 1.6% 0.3% 7.0% 6.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 7.5% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 4.0% 4.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##