* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST CP922025 07/31/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 52 53 54 56 56 56 55 52 48 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 52 53 54 56 56 56 55 52 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 38 38 38 38 40 42 43 43 43 40 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 2 2 10 11 6 10 10 9 12 13 15 13 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 0 0 0 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 16 351 4 21 218 226 214 192 202 243 248 280 303 307 284 265 255 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.7 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 144 141 133 131 136 138 137 142 141 144 143 140 140 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 49 50 54 53 51 49 49 49 50 53 53 50 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 27 15 25 22 23 27 27 26 42 47 44 26 12 12 8 200 MB DIV 5 21 53 63 48 30 37 65 41 13 41 54 47 18 -18 2 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 5 3 2 0 5 -5 -7 -7 -3 -3 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1278 1144 1027 910 799 671 701 891 1082 1300 1549 1803 2020 2202 2329 2438 2509 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.6 12.2 11.7 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.8 149.3 150.8 152.3 155.2 158.2 161.5 164.6 167.8 170.8 173.5 175.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 15 16 15 16 15 14 13 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 23 19 17 20 20 27 38 43 50 55 58 62 63 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. 43. 42. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 23. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. 22. 18. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 146.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 22.9% 18.1% 14.5% 0.0% 21.4% 19.7% 16.1% Logistic: 3.7% 19.6% 10.3% 5.1% 0.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 14.6% 9.5% 6.5% 0.3% 8.5% 8.0% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 9.3% 5.7% 3.7% 0.6% 4.7% 5.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##