* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST CP922025 07/31/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 50 53 55 55 56 60 61 61 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 50 53 55 55 56 60 61 61 62 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 42 41 41 43 45 47 48 49 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 4 2 5 9 9 8 7 10 11 13 10 10 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 4 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 53 69 350 32 64 207 217 221 233 231 241 297 308 321 288 274 284 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 146 144 137 130 136 139 138 143 142 146 145 142 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 50 49 51 52 55 53 51 52 54 55 55 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 25 22 16 17 15 8 15 25 29 45 50 33 12 10 6 200 MB DIV -30 -14 18 38 56 50 31 40 17 15 60 81 53 33 -2 -28 12 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 5 2 2 3 0 -7 -6 -5 0 -1 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1406 1271 1144 1021 914 733 689 823 1044 1232 1473 1720 1942 2116 2234 2348 2434 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.1 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.7 146.3 147.8 149.4 150.9 153.7 156.7 159.9 163.1 166.2 169.2 171.9 174.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 16 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 22 23 18 19 22 25 36 42 48 53 57 59 62 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 44. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. 30. 31. 31. 32. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 144.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 21.0% 16.6% 13.2% 0.0% 20.8% 19.8% 14.6% Logistic: 11.9% 42.6% 27.1% 13.4% 3.0% 11.9% 5.1% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 22.4% 14.6% 8.9% 1.0% 10.9% 8.3% 6.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/31/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##