* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922025 07/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 35 40 43 44 44 44 46 49 50 49 49 48 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 35 40 43 44 44 44 46 49 50 49 49 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 38 38 37 38 40 41 42 42 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 6 1 3 2 4 11 6 3 4 9 11 13 14 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 3 1 -3 -1 -4 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 41 31 43 26 9 146 201 212 233 237 169 204 254 304 296 283 268 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.2 27.8 27.9 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 142 144 146 142 136 130 135 139 138 144 145 147 143 141 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 51 50 49 50 48 51 47 48 51 54 57 56 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 22 24 23 15 12 8 3 6 21 36 50 43 30 9 -6 200 MB DIV -55 -82 -60 -29 4 61 55 28 8 -10 0 51 77 52 -26 6 27 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 1 5 0 0 0 -1 -8 -7 -4 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1675 1520 1369 1239 1103 862 682 662 819 1062 1260 1523 1814 2056 2256 2400 2544 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.3 11.6 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.6 143.2 144.8 146.3 147.9 151.0 154.0 157.0 160.3 163.6 166.7 169.8 172.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 15 15 15 17 16 15 15 15 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 19 19 20 21 16 18 20 25 37 43 50 56 59 63 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 45. 45. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 16. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 141.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 16.6% 13.2% Logistic: 0.5% 6.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.9% 5.6% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 2.5% .8% .6% 0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##