* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922025 07/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 49 51 51 49 51 52 55 55 54 54 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 49 51 51 49 51 52 55 55 54 54 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 38 43 45 46 45 47 50 54 56 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 8 6 3 3 2 6 9 2 1 2 9 10 13 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 -2 -1 -2 2 -3 -3 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 43 53 52 73 88 33 41 181 225 246 128 198 222 263 278 278 253 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.7 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 142 144 146 141 132 132 136 140 144 147 149 148 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 53 52 53 51 52 52 49 48 51 56 58 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 26 25 26 24 14 8 7 5 13 20 44 52 45 22 0 200 MB DIV -42 -64 -82 -52 -22 25 48 29 25 -11 -13 1 58 67 37 -16 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 4 3 2 -2 1 -6 -7 -3 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1852 1718 1579 1437 1302 1042 809 683 722 926 1176 1419 1685 1939 2125 2276 2380 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.1 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.0 141.4 142.9 144.5 146.0 149.2 152.1 155.1 158.2 161.4 164.4 167.5 170.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 22 21 22 19 17 21 22 30 42 47 53 57 59 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. 46. 46. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 21. 19. 21. 22. 25. 25. 24. 24. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 140.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP922025 INVEST 07/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% Logistic: 0.5% 7.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922025 INVEST 07/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##