* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902025 07/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 46 48 47 44 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 46 48 47 44 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 31 27 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 11 12 8 3 8 13 23 29 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 8 10 7 7 -2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 128 138 141 130 136 150 248 250 289 296 295 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 146 147 147 143 139 130 135 136 140 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 64 61 54 51 47 48 44 44 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 21 28 41 44 39 27 19 -9 -8 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 86 49 14 22 -24 13 0 -11 -25 -11 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1395 1345 1296 1221 1149 1019 879 738 757 921 1082 1277 1523 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 8 10 13 15 17 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 22 23 22 18 21 20 28 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 25. 31. 36. 40. 43. 44. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 23. 22. 19. 15. 12. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 145.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902025 INVEST 07/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 9.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.3% 5.6% 0.4% 0.3% 6.2% 5.7% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% SDCON: .7% 8.1% 4.3% .7% .1% 4.6% 4.8% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902025 INVEST 07/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##