* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902025 07/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 39 44 49 49 52 53 53 54 56 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 39 44 49 49 52 53 53 54 56 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 34 33 31 29 29 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 13 13 12 12 6 2 0 7 9 14 8 11 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 5 9 9 13 8 2 0 2 7 0 SHEAR DIR 129 142 147 146 137 124 126 68 345 256 4 336 344 358 2 304 263 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 144 146 147 145 151 151 151 146 146 146 146 147 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 71 68 63 53 51 52 56 60 67 67 67 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 20 21 27 37 42 42 46 38 29 22 20 7 -3 -10 -22 200 MB DIV 67 86 94 74 43 -8 -26 3 25 29 4 7 52 27 47 12 24 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 3 4 LAND (KM) 1553 1469 1401 1334 1286 1197 1134 1078 1038 1036 1132 1263 1442 1567 1689 1811 1949 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.2 9.1 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.7 144.5 145.4 146.2 147.9 149.7 151.5 153.6 156.0 158.8 161.6 164.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 16 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 20 23 25 28 31 35 36 39 43 45 46 49 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 25. 32. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51. 52. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 31. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 142.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.54 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.6% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 6.5% 5.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0% 5.3% 3.1% .5% 0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##