* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902025 07/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 44 47 50 51 53 52 53 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 44 47 50 51 53 52 53 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 38 40 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 17 16 17 13 8 7 3 2 6 7 9 10 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -4 -2 -4 -5 0 1 5 6 4 3 0 -2 -3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 103 120 133 139 134 127 126 85 94 51 24 30 335 350 358 30 335 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 142 144 145 147 149 147 149 150 149 150 143 141 142 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 72 72 64 58 51 52 57 63 66 69 68 70 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 21 26 29 40 51 49 48 33 14 0 1 2 -4 -3 -3 200 MB DIV 76 72 102 114 114 36 -5 -22 4 42 43 3 -11 26 59 75 57 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 3 LAND (KM) 1650 1566 1490 1431 1381 1288 1227 1155 1101 1032 1003 1028 1114 1249 1383 1486 1612 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.1 142.9 143.7 144.4 145.1 146.6 148.0 149.5 151.0 153.0 155.3 157.8 160.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 33 34 34 40 42 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 36. 40. 44. 47. 48. 49. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 27. 28. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 142.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 8.2% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 7.0% 6.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% SDCON: 0% 5.6% 3.2% 0% 0% 4.0% 5.6% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##