* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902025 07/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 38 42 44 47 49 53 55 55 54 53 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 38 42 44 47 49 53 55 55 54 53 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 34 37 39 40 38 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 18 19 17 17 20 18 6 5 5 12 17 16 16 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -8 -5 -5 -4 -2 5 9 14 9 6 4 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 50 60 85 101 112 111 119 110 117 45 22 41 30 13 346 335 328 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 143 144 145 147 149 148 148 152 152 150 150 148 144 149 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 68 68 68 60 54 49 51 56 63 67 71 69 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 28 27 26 21 29 30 38 42 38 24 11 0 -11 -21 -32 200 MB DIV 87 88 111 99 116 94 42 -2 -32 -5 29 45 9 3 22 5 14 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1789 1676 1583 1500 1435 1349 1273 1236 1192 1164 1140 1147 1203 1313 1470 1636 1769 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.7 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.9 142.1 143.1 144.0 144.7 146.0 147.3 148.6 150.0 151.4 153.4 155.8 158.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 23 22 22 23 24 26 30 35 39 40 42 46 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 25. 31. 36. 41. 45. 49. 51. 52. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -12. -11. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. 27. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 140.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 20.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 3.6% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 9.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 7.8% 7.9% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902025 INVEST 07/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##